What is the stock market forecast for 2025?
The stock market just flashed bullish a signal suggesting 19% upside by August 2025, BofA says. The S&P 500 just flashed a bullish signal that suggests a 19% gain by August 2025, according to Bank of America. The bank highlighted the stock market's 12 consecutive months of positive year-over-year gains.
S&P 500 could hit 6,500 by end-2025, says Capital Economics.
Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates predict 3.6% earnings growth and 3.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter. Analysts project full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.0% in 2024, but analysts are more optimistic about some market sectors than others.
Price Forecast for 2025: $5700 (as of April 4, 2024). PrimeXBT projects the S&P 500 to reach $5,700 by 2025, influenced by factors like Federal Reserve rate hikes, inflation, and geopolitical issues.
Combining insights from five separate methodologies, Goldman thinks investors in US stocks can expect average annualized total returns (i.e. including not just share price growth but dividends and buybacks) of 6% – with a 70% chance of returns between 2% and 11%.
The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
Morningstar Investment Management
Highlights: 4.6% 10-year nominal returns for U.S. stocks; 4.3% 10-year nominal returns for U.S. aggregate bonds (as of Dec. 31, 2023). Following a major U.S. market rally in 2023, Morningstar Investment Management's 10-year equity outlook dropped relative to where it was in late 2022.
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
1. Positive returns -- but smaller than in 2023. I think that the overall stock market will deliver positive returns in 2024. However, I expect those returns to be somewhat smaller than they were last year.
Key Takeaways: Growth stocks may see a robust 2024 on the strength of trends such as AI disruption and decarbonization. Small-cap stocks are trading at attractive valuations as analysts see the possibility of a rebound in 2024. The time could be right for locking in rates on long-term, high-yield bonds.
How high will the Dow be in 2025?
Year | Open, $ | Close, $ |
---|---|---|
December 2024 | 45370 | 46983 |
December 2025 | 56472 | 59561 |
January 2026 | 59561 | 56446 |
December 2026 | 53164 | 51981 |
Now is as good a time as any to invest in the stock market. Long-term investors with a horizon of years, not days or weeks, will do better to invest their money as soon as they can. The adage "time in the market beats timing the market" is true.
- High-yield savings accounts.
- Certificates of deposit (CDs)
- Bonds.
- Money market funds.
- Mutual funds.
- Index Funds.
- Exchange-traded funds.
- Stocks.
- DaVita Inc. ( ticker: DVA)
- DraftKings Inc. ( DKNG)
- Extra Space Storage Inc. ( EXR)
- First Solar Inc. ( FSLR)
- Gen Digital Inc. ( GEN)
- Microsoft Corp. ( MSFT)
- Nvidia Corp. ( NVDA)
- SoFi Technologies Inc. ( SOFI)
Looking at the S&P 500 for the years 1993 to mid-2023, the average stock market return for the last 30 years is 9.90% (7.22% when adjusted for inflation). Some of this success can be attributed to the dot-com boom in the late 1990s (before the bust), which resulted in high return rates for five consecutive years.
Nvidia trades at a high P/E based on its trailing earnings, but looking ahead to this year's estimate, it trades at a more reasonable forward P/E of 32. Assuming Nvidia is still trading at the same forward P/E, its stock price could reach $3,360 by the end of 2030, or 328% above the current share price.
The Yardeni Research president predicted the S&P 500 could jump to 6,500 by 2026, implying a 30% gain from the benchmark index's current levels.
Traders work on the floor during morning trading at the New York Stock Exchange on March 6, 2024. Despite the heavy concentration of the U.S. market rally in expensive, AI-focused tech stocks, analysts say Wall Street is not yet in bubble territory.
History says no. During the three years leading up to bubble peaks, U.S. stocks have risen 100% or more. The S&P 500 is nowhere near that this time around.
To some investors, this might seem unlikely. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, an index that has astonished with its ascent over the past decade, likely will continue to astonish through the 2020s, rising to 50,000 by 2027.
Is Charles Schwab in financial trouble?
From August 2022 through March 2023, Charles Schwab lost deposits due to client cash sorting at a pace of $5.6 billion per month as yields on savings accounts or other safe short-term assets like certificates of deposits rose. These deposit outflow pressures slowed significantly following the regional banking crisis.
Stocks are considered long-term investments. This is, in part, because it's not unusual for stocks to drop 10% to 20% or more in value over a shorter period of time. Investors have the opportunity to ride out some of these highs and lows over a period of many years or even decades to generate a better long-term return.
Stock | 2024 return through March 31 |
---|---|
MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) | 169.9% |
SoundHound AI Inc. (SOUN) | 177.8% |
Vera Therapeutics Inc. (VERA) | 180.4% |
Avidity Biosciences Inc. (RNA) | 182% |
Looking at the numbers, more good news could be in store for the bulls. 2024 is off to a strong start. The first three months of the year have been positive, marking a five-month streak of stock market wins. Strong starts to the year typically lead to above-average performance over the rest of the year.
The duration of bear markets can vary, but on average, they last approximately 289 days, equivalent to around nine and a half months. It's important to note that there's no way to predict the timing of a bear market with complete certainty, and history shows that the average bear market length can vary significantly.
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