The Great Stock Market Crash of 1929: Why History Textbooks and the Conventional Wisdom Get It Wrong (2024)

The Great Stock Market Crash of 1929: Why History Textbooks and the Conventional Wisdom Get It Wrong

By Thomas F. Schwartz

The Great Stock Market Crash of 1929: Why History Textbooks and the Conventional Wisdom Get It Wrong (1)

History textbooks tell us that the 1929 stock market crash signaled the beginning of the “Great Depression.” Warning signs of overvaluation and buying on the margin were flashing red lights that a corrective path needed to be taken to avoid Black Monday. But none of this was evident to the leading economists at the time and the stock market crash did not cause the “Great Depression.” Why the market collapsed in October 1929 and did not surpass its pre-Depression value until 1954 continues to lack a consensus among economists. The discipline of economics was still being developed in 1929. Even in hindsight, the evidence is not clear why the market crashed in 1929. The housing market crash in 2007-2008 producing a global credit crisis that reduced housing prices more than during the Great Depression was also unforeseen. Numerous books and even a Hollywood film, The Big Short, attempt to answer the question that Queen Elizabeth asked economists, “Why did nobody notice?” Major economic upheavals are not always evident in real time but only in hindsight—and not even then.

Most stocks were trading at 14 to 19 times earning in September 1929 with profits growing faster than stock prices. Some stocks were indeed overvalued and overpriced as in any market at any time. The Bull Market of the 1920s allowed credit to be extended generously so new investors only needed to purchase stock at twenty-five percent of its value, the other seventy-five percent was borrowed money from a brokerage firm. At the time of the crash, roughly 600,000 margin accounts were held by brokerage firms out of a total national population of 120 million Americans. It has been estimated that three million Americans owned stock of some sort, most of small amounts fully paid. Again, that represented less than 2.5% of the American population. Unlike today with most Americans tied to the stock market directly with retirement accounts or indirectly with managed pension plans, most Americans in the 1929 were not active in the stock market directly or indirectly. The image of vast numbers of investors jumping out of office building windows simply did not occur. In fact, as the business historian, Robert Sobel, noted, “the suicide rate was down during this period.”

At its peak on September 3, 1929, the Dow hit 381.17. The “crash” witnessed losses of 12.8% and 11.7% on Black Monday and Tuesday. The market hit bottom almost two years later at 41.2 marking a decline in value of 89.2%. As one writer described it “In less than 35 months, a dollar invested in stocks shriveled into barely more than a dime.” Surprisingly, no bank failures or major business failures occurred in the immediate aftermath of the crash. While the market crash did not cause the Great Depression, it was a factor in the economic malaise that characterized the period.

Economic downturns hurt the optimistic bullish investors but reward the pessimistic bearish investors. Several individuals who bet against or “shorted” the market became rich or richer. Percy Rockefeller, William Danforth, and Joseph P. Kennedy made millions shorting stocks at this time. They saw opportunity in what most saw as misfortune.

The Great Stock Market Crash of 1929: Why History Textbooks and the Conventional Wisdom Get It Wrong (2024)

FAQs

What lessons were learned from the stock market crash of 1929? ›

The 5 lessons are explored in more depth below.
  • Buy and hold investing is not a sure bet. Even over the course of decades, it may be a losing strategy. ...
  • Paying big premiums for growth is risky. ...
  • Crashes are often unforeseen. ...
  • A crash may come while profits are rising. ...
  • A crash may take years to bottom out.
Nov 1, 2019

What caused the stock market to crash so badly in 1929? ›

What Were the Causes of the 1929 Stock Market Crash? There were many causes of the 1929 stock market crash, some of which included overinflated shares, growing bank loans, agricultural overproduction, panic selling, stocks purchased on margin, higher interest rates, and a negative media industry.

What major issue was caused in 1929 by the stock market crash which caused great poverty in the 1930s? ›

The Great Depression began in 1929 when, in a period of ten weeks, stocks on the New York Stock Exchange lost 50 percent of their value. As stocks continued to fall during the early 1930s, businesses failed, and unemployment rose dramatically.

What was the main reason the money stock declined fell during the Great Depression? ›

The money stock fell during the Great Depression primarily because of banking panics. Banking systems rely on the confidence of depositors that they will be able to access their funds in banks whenever they need them.

What major lessons were learned from the Great Depression? ›

One of the most important lessons to take away from the Depression is that anything can happen, and it's always a good idea to plan ahead. As the unemployment rate keeps rising, you may be worried that you've missed your chance. But it's not too late to set up an emergency fund.

What are some lessons learned from the Great Depression? ›

Coming out of the Great Depression, many people, for many years, were intentional about avoiding debt. Another practical lesson we can learn from the Great Depression that may be applied to the current economic crisis is the importance of having a budget.

Who is most to blame for the stock market crash of 1929? ›

Among the more prominent causes were the period of rampant speculation (those who had bought stocks on margin not only lost the value of their investment, they also owed money to the entities that had granted the loans for the stock purchases), tightening of credit by the Federal Reserve (in August 1929 the discount ...

Who was blamed for the stock market crash of 1929? ›

Many people blamed the crash on commercial banks that were too eager to put deposits at risk on the stock market. In 1930, 1,352 banks held more than $853 million in deposits; in 1931, one year later, 2,294 banks failed with nearly $1.7 billion in deposits.

What was the biggest crash in history? ›

Few would dispute that the crash of 1929 was the worst in history. Not only did it produce the largest stock market decline; it also contributed to the Great Depression, an economic crisis that consumed virtually the entire decade of the 1930s.

Who got rich during the Great Depression? ›

Not everyone, however, lost money during the worst economic downturn in American history. Business titans such as William Boeing and Walter Chrysler actually grew their fortunes during the Great Depression.

Did the Great Depression cause poverty? ›

Lasting almost 10 years (from late 1929 until about 1939) and affecting nearly every country in the world, it was marked by steep declines in industrial production and in prices (deflation), mass unemployment, banking panics, and sharp increases in rates of poverty and homelessness.

Was everyone poor during the Great Depression? ›

Even as late as 1939, a decade into the Great Depression, over 60 percent of rural households and 82 percent of farm families were classified as “impoverished.” In larger urban areas, unemployment levels exceeded the national average, with over half million unemployed workers in Chicago, and nearly a million in New ...

What were three major reasons that led to the stock market crash? ›

In addition to the Federal Reserve's questionable policies and misguided banking practices, three primary reasons for the collapse of the stock market were international economic woes, poor income distribution, and the psychology of public confidence.

What were the four main causes of the Great Depression? ›

Among the suggested causes of the Great Depression are: the stock market crash of 1929; the collapse of world trade due to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff; government policies; bank failures and panics; and the collapse of the money supply.

What were the four main effects of the Great Depression? ›

Factories were shut down, farms and homes were lost to foreclosure, mills and mines were abandoned, and people went hungry. The resulting lower incomes meant the further inability of the people to spend or to save their way out of the crisis, thus perpetuating the economic slowdown in a seemingly never-ending cycle.

What did we learn from the Great Recession? ›

The last U.S. recession underscored the importance of being prepared for unexpected events. Financial advisors learned that they must be proactive in developing high-quality contingency plans and helping their clients prepare for a range of possible outcomes, including economic downturns and market volatility.

What are some important lessons from the 2008 financial crisis? ›

One of the principal lessons of the financial crises is the importance of accountability. Bailouts allow people and companies to escape the consequences of bad practices, but a system without accountability will not work in the long run. Americans love sports, and accountability is an essential part of any sport.

Did anyone benefit from the 1929 stock market crash? ›

Several individuals who bet against or “shorted” the market became rich or richer. Percy Rockefeller, William Danforth, and Joseph P. Kennedy made millions shorting stocks at this time. They saw opportunity in what most saw as misfortune.

What do you know about the stock market crash of 1929? ›

On October 29, 1929, "Black Tuesday" hit Wall Street as investors traded some 16 million shares on the New York Stock Exchange in a single day. Around $14 billion of stock value was lost, wiping out thousands of investors. The panic selling reached its peak with some stocks having no buyers at any price.

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