Investor Pulse: Optimism for 2024 (2024)

About the Vanguard Investor Expectations Survey

Vanguard’s Investor Research & Insights team has been collecting Vanguard investor expectations for U.S. stock market returns and U.S. GDP growth since February 2017. The survey runs every other month, in February, April, June, August, October, and December. A special survey was conducted in March 2020 during the pandemic-induced market crash.

The survey poses 13 brief questions about U.S. stock market and economic growth expectations to a random sample of 2,000 Vanguard personal and 401(k) investors. It is conducted in partnership with academic researchers Stefano Giglio of the Yale School of Management, Matteo Maggiori of the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, and Johannes Stroebel of the Stern School of Business, New York University.

The survey respondents are a random sample of U.S.-based Vanguard investors invited by email to participate. About 80% of the sample is drawn from our personal investor clients and about 20% from participants in employer-sponsored defined contribution retirement plans. To be included, investors also must have opted in to receive Vanguard statements by email, be over age 21, and have total Vanguard assets of at least $10,000. Overall, this sample group holds about $2 trillion in assets at Vanguard. We receive about 2,000 responses from investors in each period the survey is conducted.

The responses may be of use to advisors, plan sponsors, researchers, and other investors wishing to gauge current sentiment among individual households and calibrate clients’ thoughts compared with the market.

Investor Pulse: Optimism for 2024 (2024)

FAQs

Investor Pulse: Optimism for 2024? ›

Investors are brimming with confidence going into 2024,” said Xiao Xu, an analyst in Vanguard Investment Strategy Group. “Their optimism about the stock market has hit its highest level in two years, following the recent surge in U.S. equities.”

Will 2024 be good for stocks? ›

Market Sectors To Watch In 2024

Analysts project 11.5% earnings growth and 5.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in 2024. Fortunately, analysts see positive earnings and revenue growth for all eleven market sectors this year.

What is the expected return of the stock market in the next 10 years? ›

Highlights: 5.2% 10-year expected nominal return for U.S. large-cap equities; 9.9% for European equities; 9.1% for emerging-markets equities; 5.0% for U.S. aggregate bonds (as of September 2023). All return assumptions are nominal (non-inflation-adjusted).

What is equity in the share market? ›

Equity is simply the value of an investor's stake in a company. It is represented by the value of shares an investor owns. Stock ownership gives shareholders access to potential capital gains and dividends.

Is investing in stocks synonymous to gambling? ›

Is Investing Basically Gambling? Investing is the act of committing capital to an asset like a stock, with the expectation of generating income or profit. Gambling, on the other hand, is wagering money on an uncertain outcome, that statistically is likely to be negative.

What is the prediction for the 2024 stock market? ›

The consensus 12-month analyst price target for the S&P 500 is 5,614, representing about 6.8% upside from current levels. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial, says the S&P 500 is in a strong uptrend heading into earnings season.

What stock will boom in 2024? ›

*Based on current CFRA 12-month target prices.
  • Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) ...
  • Alphabet Inc. (GOOG, GOOGL) ...
  • Meta Platforms Inc. (META) ...
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) ...
  • Tesla Inc. (TSLA) ...
  • Mastercard Inc. (MA) ...
  • Salesforce Inc. (CRM) ...
  • Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)
5 days ago

How high will the S&P 500 go in 2024? ›

The estimates from strategists put the median target for the S&P 500 at 5,200 by the end of 2024, implying a decline of less than 1% from Friday's level, according to MarketWatch calculations. Heading into 2024, the median target was around 5,000 (see table below).

What is the stock market forecast for 2025? ›

Analysts expect S&P 500 profits to jump 8% in 2024 and 14% in 2025 after subdued growth last year. Robust global economic growth may offer equities enough support to resume a record-breaking rally, even if bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year are completely abandoned.

What is the stock market prediction for 2025? ›

The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.

What are the best dividend stocks? ›

The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), and Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE:CL) are some of the best dividend growers to generate regular income as these companies have raised their payouts for decades.

How to handle stop loss while trading in stock markets? ›

Usually, the one who wants to avoid a high risk of losses set the stop-loss order to 10% of the buy price. For example, if the stock is bought at Rs. 100 and the stop-loss order value is set to 10% (Rs. 90), in such a case when the price reaches Rs.

Which is better stock or equity? ›

While investing in stocks directly can be enticing due to the potential for high returns, equity mutual funds often emerge as a more suitable option for a vast majority of investors. Let's explore why equity mutual funds might just be the better choice for most investors.

How long will it take for my investment to double? ›

The Rule of 72 is a simple way to determine how long an investment will take to double given a fixed annual rate of interest. Dividing 72 by the annual rate of return gives investors a rough estimate of how many years it will take for the initial investment to duplicate itself.

Is the stock market glorified gambling? ›

However, institutional investors do tend to have more knowledge, as these are large companies with numerous analysts specialising in a particular market. Still, the stock market is not entirely comparable to a casino. Indeed, with gambling, it is the case that you cannot predict it at all, nor explain it afterwards.

What does the Bible say about gambling? ›

The Bible doesn't call gambling a sin as such, although the Bible warns against the love of money and get-rich-quick schemes. Let's explore what we can learn about the moral status of gambling from the Bible and from gambling's effects.

Is 2024 a year to invest? ›

Key Takeaways: Growth stocks may see a robust 2024 on the strength of trends such as AI disruption and decarbonization. Small-cap stocks are trading at attractive valuations as analysts see the possibility of a rebound in 2024. The time could be right for locking in rates on long-term, high-yield bonds.

How high will the stock market be by 2025? ›

S&P 500 could hit 6,500 by end-2025, says Capital Economics.

What is the Dow prediction for 2024? ›

The bank's analysts give a positive forecast for the Dow Jones exchange rate in 2024. In their opinion, index quotes will increase by 10% to $40,000 in 2024. If the US economy avoids recession, growth could reach up to 19%. This scenario is more likely due to cooling inflation and stable GDP growth.

What stocks to invest in in 2024? ›

10 of the Best Stocks to Buy for 2024
  • Alphabet Inc. (ticker: GOOGL)
  • Discover Financial Services (DFS)
  • Walt Disney Co. (DIS)
  • PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)
  • Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY)
  • Match Group Inc. (MTCH)
  • Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV (ASR)
  • Target Corp. (TGT)

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