'Bubble may be far from bursting': Capital Economics says S&P 500 could hit 6,500 by end of next year (2024)

FAQs

'Bubble may be far from bursting': Capital Economics says S&P 500 could hit 6,500 by end of next year? ›

But, for now, we are sticking to our view that this one will inflate through the end of next year. Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania.

The estimates from strategists put the median target for the S&P 500 at 5,200 by the end of 2024, implying a decline of less than 1% from Friday's level, according to MarketWatch calculations. Heading into 2024, the median target was around 5,000 (see table below).

The stock market just flashed bullish a signal suggesting 19% upside by August 2025, BofA says. The S&P 500 just flashed a bullish signal that suggests a 19% gain by August 2025, according to Bank of America. The bank highlighted the stock market's 12 consecutive months of positive year-over-year gains.

We predict the S&P 500 will increase around 60-80% from its current levels by 2030. However, there is always the chance that unforeseen events could affect these numbers. There is also a small chance that all the factors we discussed above may turn out positively or negatively.

Ed Yardeni, the renowned economist and market expert, has made a bold prediction for the future of the stock market. He believes that the S&P 500 could surge by a whopping 26% by 2026 to 6,500.

Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.

Here's the Growth Stock to Buy Right Now. The Nasdaq-100 technology index plunged into a bear market in 2022 on the back of a 33% loss for the year.

U.S. stock returns: 2023 optimism carries forward

This heightened optimism is on par with the positive outlook in December 2021, when investors anticipated a 6% stock market return for 2022. Investor expectations for stock returns over the long run (defined as the next 10 years) rose slightly to 7.2%.

S&P 500 5 Year Return is at 85.38%, compared to 83.02% last month and 55.60% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 45.20%. The S&P 500 5 Year Return is the investment return received for a 5 year period, excluding dividends, when holding the S&P 500 index.

What is the stock market prediction for 2025? ›

The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC 1.02%) has been reaching new heights, soaring by a whopping 41% from its lowest point in October 2022. This can be an exciting time for investors, many of whom have watched their portfolios plummet in value over the past several years.

The average S&P 500 stock — not just the 'Magnificent Seven' — is overvalued, Goldman says. The average S&P 500 stock has joined the "Magnificent Seven" in overvalued territory, according to Goldman Sachs Group.

Combining insights from five separate methodologies, Goldman thinks investors in US stocks can expect average annualized total returns (i.e. including not just share price growth but dividends and buybacks) of 6% – with a 70% chance of returns between 2% and 11%.

Stock Market Average Yearly Return for the Last 5 Years

The historical average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 14.53% over the last 5 years, as of the end of February 2024. This assumes dividends are reinvested.

Average Market Return for the Last 30 Years

Looking at the S&P 500 for the years 1993 to mid-2023, the average stock market return for the last 30 years is 9.90% (7.22% when adjusted for inflation).

Fortunately, analysts see positive earnings and revenue growth for all eleven market sectors this year. The healthcare sector is expected to generate a market-leading 17.8% earnings growth in 2024, while the information technology sector is expected to lead the way with 9.3% revenue growth.

The US stock market enjoyed a strong first quarter in 2024, advancing 10%. But inflation was stickier than some expected. In fact, the March CPI number that came out this morning was hotter than expected, too. And that's leading many to question when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

Optimistic: 6%-7% per year.

If you assume margins and P/E multiples will remain at their current high level, and expect sales and buybacks to grow at their historical rates, then you can anticipate making about 6% in returns per year over the next decade.