The stock market just flashed bullish a signal suggesting 19% upside by August 2025, BofA says (2024)

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The stock market just flashed bullish a signal suggesting 19% upside by August 2025, BofA says (1) The stock market just flashed bullish a signal suggesting 19% upside by August 2025, BofA says (2)
  • The S&P 500 just flashed a bullish signal that suggests a 19% gain by August 2025, according to Bank of America.
  • The bank highlighted the stock market's 12 consecutive months of positive year-over-year gains.
  • The signal suggests that equities still have a bullish backdrop despite weakness in April.

The stock market just flashed bullish a signal suggesting 19% upside by August 2025, BofA says (3)

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The stock market just flashed bullish a signal suggesting 19% upside by August 2025, BofA says (5)

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A bullish signal just flashed in the stock market, and it suggests that the S&P 500 could surge another 19% to 6,000 by August 2025, according to Bank of America.

In a note on Tuesday, Bank of America technical analyst Stephen Suttmeier highlighted that the S&P 500 posted 12 consecutive months of positive year-over-year gains.

In other words, from March 2023 to March 2024, the S&P 500 had a positive year-over-year return each month. That bullish signal is the exact opposite to what happened in the prior year, when the S&P 500 delivered 12 consecutive months with negative year-over-year gains, from April 2022 through March 2023.

"April 2023 broke this bearish streak with a positive YoY return. We viewed this as a bullish backdrop signal for US equities, and the SPX has rallied over 20% since then," Suttmeier said.

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The positive signal that just flashed is a reminder to investors that despite the stock market's weakness in April, with the S&P 500 down about 4%, the long-term trend in stocks is still up. And that suggests there could be further gains ahead.

"Don't lose sight of the secular bull market," Suttmeier said.

According to Suttmeier, the monthly streak of positive returns can extend from the current 12 month-reading to 20 months, based on historical averages, which coincides with a 17% gain for stocks. Meanwhile, the median streak of positive returns can extend to 17 months with a gain of 14%, based on historical data.

That suggests the S&P 500 could trade to 6,000 by August 2025, and to as high as 6,150 by November 2025.

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But in the short-term, amid the ongoing weakness in stocks, Suttmeier said investors should keep an eye on potential support levels for the S&P 500 at 5,000 as well as a range from 4,600 to 4,800.

Those support levels represent a potential decline of as much as 9%, signaling that the current risk/reward profile for stocks remains attractive.

The stock market just flashed bullish a signal suggesting 19% upside by August 2025, BofA says (2024)

FAQs

The stock market just flashed bullish a signal suggesting 19% upside by August 2025, BofA says? ›

The S&P 500 just flashed a bullish signal that suggests a 19% gain by August 2025, according to Bank of America. The bank highlighted the stock market's 12 consecutive months of positive year-over-year gains. The signal suggests that equities still have a bullish backdrop despite weakness in April.

What was the biggest crash in history? ›

Few would dispute that the crash of 1929 was the worst in history. Not only did it produce the largest stock market decline; it also contributed to the Great Depression, an economic crisis that consumed virtually the entire decade of the 1930s.

How long did it take for the stock market to recover after 1929? ›

The crash lasted until 1932, resulting in the Great Depression, a time in which stocks lost nearly 90% of their value. The Dow didn't fully recover until November of 1954.

What caused the stock market crash? ›

The main cause of the Wall Street crash of 1929 was the long period of speculation that preceded it, during which millions of people invested their savings or borrowed money to buy stocks, pushing prices to unsustainable levels.

What is the brightest indicator of how US stocks are performing? ›

The Bottom Line

Key indicators for the stock market are large indexes such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, or NASDAQ.

What is the deadliest crash in US history? ›

All 258 passengers and 13 crew on board were killed, along with two people on the ground. With 273 fatalities, it is the deadliest aviation accident to have occurred in the United States. Des Plaines, near O'Hare International Airport, Illinois, U.S.

What was the worst market crash ever? ›

The Wall Street crash of 1929 hit the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on 24 October. It is considered the most famous stock market crash of the 20th century, and the greatest crash in the history of the United States.

Can you lose your 401k in a recession? ›

The value of a 401(k) account, or any retirement account, always depends on how the account is invested. For many people who are still decades away from retirement, their portfolios will largely consist of stocks, which may suffer declines during a recession or economic slowdown.

What is the longest time for the stock market to recover? ›

As shown in the table below, the recovery period for U.S. stocks has been as long as 15 years: In the wake of the 1929 Crash, the IA SBBI US Large Stock Index didn't fully recover until late 1944.

How much does the average person have in stocks? ›

The median value of stock held by households was $40,000. Stocks can be owned in a variety of ways. One is direct ownership, whereby shares of individual companies are held. Only 15% of families owned stock in 2019 this way.

Who got rich during the Great Depression? ›

Not everyone, however, lost money during the worst economic downturn in American history. Business titans such as William Boeing and Walter Chrysler actually grew their fortunes during the Great Depression.

Do you lose all your money if the stock market crashes? ›

When the stock market declines, the market value of your stock investment can decline as well. However, because you still own your shares (if you didn't sell them), that value can move back into positive territory when the market changes direction and heads back up. So, you may lose value, but that can be temporary.

Can stocks go to zero? ›

A drop in price to zero means the investor loses his or her entire investment: a return of -100%. To summarize, yes, a stock can lose its entire value. However, depending on the investor's position, the drop to worthlessness can be either good (short positions) or bad (long positions).

What is the most powerful indicator in trading? ›

The best technical indicators for forex traders are the RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands. Most FX traders use these as their primary indicators. There are other indicators available in the market, but these three tend to be the most commonly used for predicting future price points.

What is the most accurate stock market indicator? ›

However, if you'd like to get started with technical trading, here are five of the best indicators you can start with.
  • The Simple Moving Average. A simple moving average (SMA) is exactly what it sounds like. ...
  • Bollinger Bands. ...
  • 52-Week High/Low. ...
  • P/E Ratio. ...
  • Parabolic Stop-And-Reverse.
Mar 8, 2024

What is the most accurate stock predictor? ›

Zacks Ultimate has proven itself as one of the most accurate stock predictors for more than three decades. Incepted in 1988, this established service has produced phenomenal returns for its members. In fact, since 1998, Zacks Ultimate has generated average annualized returns of 24.3%.

Was 1929 crash worse than 2008? ›

In the Great Depression from 1929 to 1933, the price level fell by 22 percent and real GDP fell by 31 percent. In the 2008-2009 recession, the price level rose at a slow pace and real GDP fell by less than 4 percent.

Why was the 2008 crash so bad? ›

Predatory lending in the form of subprime mortgages targeting low-income homebuyers, excessive risk-taking by global financial institutions, a continuous buildup of toxic assets within banks, and the bursting of the United States housing bubble culminated in a "perfect storm", which led to the Great Recession.

What was the first crash in the world? ›

Abstract. The first recorded automobile fatality occurred in a small town in the Irish Midlands in 1869. Mary Ward, a celebrated microscopist, artist, astronomer and naturalist, fell from a steam carriage and died after crush injuries from its heavy iron wheels.

What was the worst mid air crash in history? ›

The world's deadliest mid-air aviation collision occurred in northern India, over the city of Charkhi Dadri. The collision involved Saudi Flight 763 and Kazakhstan Airlines Flight 1907. On November 12, 1996, the two flights were bound for Dhahran and Indira, respectively.

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