Someone once said the stock market is a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long. Investment bank Goldman Sachs has just gone one better – jumping into its time machine to make some landmark predictions about the state of US stocks in 2030 💫
What does this mean?
This time eight years ago, Goldman conducted a similar exercise – and predicted that the S&P 500 index of US stocks would deliver annualized returns of 8% over the subsequent decade. In the event, an investment in the US market has ended up returning 13.6% for each year since 2010.
Yet the bank remains conservative in its outlook for the next ten years. Combining insights from five separate methodologies, Goldman thinks investors in US stocks can expect average annualized total returns (i.e. including not just share price growth but dividends and buybacks) of 6% –with a 70% chance of returns between 2% and 11%.
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
That’s less than the 9% average figure for 10-year returns over the past 140 years. But the bank is more than 90% sure that stocks will deliver a better return than US government bonds between now and 2030… 🙏
Why should I care?
Crucially, Goldman’s also 87% sure stocks will outpace inflation – the rate at which price rises eat away at the value of your cash.
Still, you shouldn’t abandon portfolio diversification just yet. Significant risks to the bank’s forecast for stocks include the current decline of globalization – the first since 1945 – reducing US companies’ increasingly important overseas profit. The first big hurdle for stocks to overcome, meanwhile, is November’s US elections, which could see US corporate taxes rise from 35-year lows 🗳
Furthermore, the biggest fillip for US stocks since 2012 – accounting for 44% of shareholder returns – was the significant increase in their prices relative to companies’ profits. When the “price-to-earnings” (P/E) ratio has previously been this high, however, the S&P 500’s average annualized return over the ten years following has historically been just 2.7% –and it’s been negative a third of the time...
Don't bet it all on the stock market just yet...
FAQs
Combining insights from five separate methodologies, Goldman thinks investors in US stocks can expect average annualized total returns (i.e. including not just share price growth but dividends and buybacks) of 6% – with a 70% chance of returns between 2% and 11%.
What is the most successful stock predictor? ›
1. AltIndex – Overall Most Accurate Stock Predictor with Claimed 72% Win Rate. From our research, AltIndex is the most accurate stock predictor to consider today. Unlike other predictor services, AltIndex doesn't rely on manual research or analysis.
What is the stock price forecast for Goldman Sachs in 2030? ›
Goldman Sachs stock price stood at $417.35
According to the latest long-term forecast, Goldman Sachs price will hit $450 by the middle of 2024 and then $500 by the middle of 2025. Goldman Sachs will rise to $600 within the year of 2026, $700 in 2027, $800 in 2028, $900 in 2030, $1000 in 2032 and $1100 in 2034.
What does Goldman Sachs predict about the stock market? ›
Goldman Sachs predicts Nifty50 surge to 23,500 by December 2024.
What is the S&P 500 stock price prediction for 2030? ›
Stock market forecast for the next decade
Since 1947, the S&P 500 has produced roughly 8% annual gains, suggesting the current environment may be a historically bad entry point for investors. In terms of a price target, Bank of America is targeting S&P 500 5,150 to 8,700 with its S&P 500 price forecast for 2030.
Who is the most accurate stock analyst? ›
Top Ranked Wall Street Analysts
- Glenn Greene – Oppenheimer. Greene focuses on the Technology sector and has an 85% success rate for his picks. ...
- Quinn Bolton – Needham. ...
- Jason Seidl – Cowen & Co. ...
- Dan Payne – National Bank. ...
- Gerard Cassidy – RBC Capital.
Best Performing Stocks YTD
| Ticker | Name | YTD Price Return |
|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corp | 80.67% |
| APP | AppLovin Corp | 75.01% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 68.17% |
| SWAV | Shockwave Medical Inc | 67.70% |
6 more rowsApr 4, 2024
3 Magnificent Stocks That Could Double or More by 2030
- CRISPR Therapeutics has significant upside potential.
- Eli Lilly could become an even bigger healthcare giant.
- Viking Therapeutics is targeting two markets that could top $100 billion by 2030.
Looking ahead, Microsoft is poised to continue growing exponentially through 2030 and beyond. With AI and machine learning becoming more prevalent across industries, Microsoft's investments position it to be a leader in providing software and cloud services to power next-generation AI applications.
What will the stock market be in 2030? ›
Combining insights from five separate methodologies, Goldman thinks investors in US stocks can expect average annualized total returns (i.e. including not just share price growth but dividends and buybacks) of 6% – with a 70% chance of returns between 2% and 11%.
Recently, Goldman Sachs's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, David Kostin, raised his year-end S&P 500 index target to 5200 (from 5100), the driver of the revision being “increased profit estimates.” “Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) ...
Is Goldman Sachs a good stock to buy now? ›
Is Goldman Sachs stock a Buy, Sell or Hold? Goldman Sachs stock has received a consensus rating of buy. The average rating score is and is based on 67 buy ratings, 25 hold ratings, and 1 sell ratings.
Who owns the most shares of Goldman Sachs? ›
According to the latest TipRanks data, approximately 37.12% of Goldman Sachs Group (GS) stock is held by retail investors. Who owns the most shares of Goldman Sachs Group (GS)? Vanguard owns the most shares of Goldman Sachs Group (GS).
What is the stock market outlook for 10 years? ›
Highlights: Nominal median U.S. equity market return of 4.2% to 6.2% during the next decade; 4.8%–5.8% median expected return for U.S. fixed income (as of Sept. 30, 2023). Vanguard's latest U.S. equity market return forecast is a touch below where it was a year ago.
What is Amazon stock forecast for 2030? ›
Amazon stock prediction for 1 year from now: $ 327.04 (81.87%) Amazon stock forecast for 2025: $ 230.98 (28.45%) Amazon stock prediction for 2030: $ 807.70 (349.17%)
What is the most accurate indicator of what a stock is actually worth? ›
Price-to-Earnings Ratio
In short, the P/E ratio shows what the market is willing to pay today for a stock based on its past or future earnings. The P/E ratio is important because it provides a measuring stick for comparing whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued.
What is the best tool to predict stock market? ›
Best 5 Technical Analysis Tools for the Indian Stock Market
- The Stochastic Oscillator.
- Parabolic SAR.
- Aroon.
- The On-Balance Volume Indicator (OBV)
- Simple Moving Averages (SMA)
- Conclusion.
- Disclaimer.
- 13 Best Stock Analysis Websites. 🔥 Seeking Alpha is one of the most rated stock analysis app. ...
- Seeking Alpha. Seeking Alpha is one of the most popular stock analysis sites with over 20 million monthly visitors. ...
- Morningstar. ...
- TradingView. ...
- TipRanks. ...
- Zacks Investment Research. ...
- 6. Yahoo Finance. ...
- Finviz.
Across all forecasts, accuracy was worse than the flip of a coin—on average, just under 47%. The distribution of forecasting accuracy by the gurus looked very much like the bell curve—what you would expect from random outcomes. The highest accuracy score was 68% and the lowest was 22%.
