Does the 4% rule work for today’s retirement? (2024)

FAQs

Does the 4% rule work for today’s retirement? ›

The 4% rule entails withdrawing up to 4% of your retirement in the first year, and subsequently withdrawing based on inflation. Some risks of the 4% rule include whims of the market, life expectancy, and changing tax rates. The rule may not hold up today, and other withdrawal strategies may work better for your needs.

Ivanna Hampton: New retirees could kick off their golden years with a familiar number, 4%. A trio of Morningstar researchers analyzed starting safe withdrawal rates from an investment portfolio to fund retirement. The future looks good, and a little flexibility could make it even better.

The 4% rule is a reasonable baseline, but it also has serious drawbacks. Among them: Retirees often want to vary their spending during retirement. Many people don't retire for three decades. Market conditions affect how much you can safely withdraw.

That means that retirees could safely withdraw as much as 3.3% as an initial spending rate and still have a 90% probability of success to have more than sufficient funds for a 30-year retirement. That bumped up to 3.8% in Morningstar's 2022 study, and back to 4% as a safe withdrawal rate for 2023.

(updated March 14, 2023) You must take your first required minimum distribution for the year in which you reach age 72 (73 if you reach age 72 after Dec. 31, 2022). However, you can delay taking the first RMD until April 1 of the following year.

The 4% rule comes with a major caveat: It's not really a “rule” since everyone's situation is different. If you have a large retirement investment portfolio, you might not need to spend 4% of it every year. If you have limited savings, 4% might not come close to covering your needs.

We did the math—looking at history and simulating many potential outcomes—and landed on this: For a high degree of confidence that you can cover a consistent amount of expenses in retirement (i.e., it should work 90% of the time), aim to withdraw no more than 4% to 5% of your savings in the first year of retirement, ...

The “rule of four” is the Supreme Court's practice of granting a petition for review only if there are at least four votes to do so. The rule is an unwritten internal one; it is not dictated by any law or the Constitution.

History of the 4% Rule

The rule was created using historical data on stock and bond returns over the 50-year period from 1926 to 1976, focusing heavily on the severe market downturns of the 1930s and early 1970s.

If you have $400,000 in the bank you can retire early at age 62, but it will be tight. The good news is that if you can keep working for just five more years, you are on track for a potentially quite comfortable retirement by full retirement age.

How many people have $1,000,000 in retirement savings? ›

However, not a huge percentage of retirees end up having that much money. In fact, statistically, around 10% of retirees have $1 million or more in savings. The majority of retirees, however, have far less saved.

Safe Withdrawal Rate

Using our portfolio of $400,000 and the 4% withdrawal rate, you could withdraw $16,000 annually from your retirement accounts and expect your money to last for at least 30 years. If, say, your Social Security checks are $2,000 monthly, you'd have a combined annual income in retirement of $40,000.

Housing. Housing—which includes mortgage, rent, property tax, insurance, maintenance and repair costs—is the largest expense for retirees.

Many retirees fall far short of that amount, but their savings may be supplemented with other forms of income. According to data from the BLS, average 2022 incomes after taxes were as follows for older households: 65-74 years: $63,187 per year or $5,266 per month. 75 and older: $47,928 per year or $3,994 per month.

One rule is a “percent of portfolio” withdrawal strategy. You take 4% or 5% of your portfolio every year no matter what. You don't adjust for inflation or market performance.

The 4% Rule for Withdrawals

The 4% rule emerged in 1994 when advisor William Bengen found that a 50%-75% stock allocation could safely support 4% initial withdrawals, with subsequent annual increases for inflation, over 30-year retirements.

Does a 401(k) recover after a recession? Your 401(k) can recover after a recession if you give it enough time to regain losses. Historically, the stock market has always recovered from recessions to eventually reach new highs.

What is the 3% rule in retirement? The 3% rule in retirement says you can withdraw 3% of your retirement savings a year and avoid running out of money. Historically, retirement planners recommended withdrawing 4% per year (the 4% rule).