What You Need to Know
- The allocation has done well by investors over the long term despite weak performance in 2022, Fran Kinniry says.
- Other mixes, even 20-80, can be the right balance in the right situation.
- Historically, a small percentage of stocks have generated most U.S. market returns.
The long-popular 60% stocks-40% bonds portfolio remains alive and well and has proved to be successful despite a rough 2022, according to a key Vanguard Group researcher.
When both stocks and bonds tanked in 2022, many analysts pronounced the traditional balanced portfolio dead. But the 60-40 did well in 2023, returning 18% as the market roared back, Morningstar noted recently.
Fran Kinniry, who heads the Vanguard Investment Advisory Research Center, said in a recent interview that last year’s “staggering” return followed a 2022 in which the 60-40 portfolio logged its fifth-worst result.
“So the irony of all that is if you even look at the 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, the 60-40 was never dead,” Kinniry said.“I think people misunderstood that because it did have a bad year in 2022. But even if you look back without last year and look at the long-run return, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, you would have been well-served owning a balanced portfolio.”
Not that the portfolio must be split along the 60-40 lines, he added.
“I think the danger also is just saying 60-40 because 60-40 is just one asset allocation. That’s not the right asset allocation for all investors,” Kinniry said.
Different Clients, Difference Balancing
Many allocations serve many purposes.
“There’s nothing wrong with 70-30. There’s nothing wrong with 80-20. There’s nothing wrong with 20-80,” Kinniry said. “It really should all go back to what are your clients’ goals, their objectives, their risk tolerance, their time horizon.”
The 60-40 mix, he added, “gets thrown around as if it’s the only portfolio. What we really need to say and what most people should say is a broadly diversified portfolio that rebalances (and is) low cost and stays the course. Whether that’s 20-80 or 80-20, it doesn’t matter.”
A 20-80 portfolio is “a perfectly good portfolio” for a retired 70- or 80-year-old, Kinniry explained. “And on the other end, a young investor who’s just graduated from college, 60-40 would be too conservative. I think we have to always kind of take the 60-40 with a grain of salt. It really is just one allocation among hundreds of allocations.”
Rather than trying to guess what will happen in a given year, advisors should focus on their clients’ goals, time horizons and risk tolerances, formulate an asset allocation and rebalance to that, Kinniry suggested, a recommendation that reflects Vanguard’s stay-the-course philosophy.
If investors had drawn conclusions from market performance in the first 10 months last year, “it probably would have been very detrimental,” he said.
Kinniry cited the pitfalls in trying to time the market and warned about the risks involved in underweighting specific stocks— for client portfolios and advisors’ practices.
Research shows that in the long term, it’s hard for active fund managers to beat indexing, “and if that is true, why would it be easy to guess what next year’s return is going to be? It’s not easy. History shows it’s wrong way more than correct. And if you’re an advisor, you really run the risk of getting fired by your client if you guess wrong,” he explained.
FAQs
The long-popular 60% stocks-40% bonds portfolio remains alive and well and has proved to be successful despite a rough 2022, according to a key Vanguard Group researcher.
What is the downside of a 60/40 portfolio? ›
Inflation is the biggest risk to a 60/40 portfolio because it can trigger central bank tightening which pushes up real rates, which weighs both on equities and bonds.
Is 60/40 too conservative? ›
The traditional 60/40 investment portfolio may be too conservative, according to some financial experts, but the allocation can be a helpful guidepost.
Why is the 40 60 balanced portfolio being challenged? ›
This diversification dynamic has been challenged by present market conditions. Stocks and bonds tend to bear a low or negative correlation during low inflation periods. In 2022, inflation and rising interest rates turned this relationship on its head and the 60/40 portfolio had its worst year since at least 1937.
What is the average return on a 60/40 portfolio? ›
As a result, 60/40 returned 17.2%, far above its historical annual median return of +7.8%. In 2022, central banks raised interest rates to tame the highest inflation rate in 40 years amid the tightest labor market in 50 years. This was the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle since the Paul Volcker era in the early 1980s.
Does 60/40 portfolio still work? ›
Key Takeaways. Once a mainstay of savvy investors, the 60/40 balanced portfolio no longer appears to be keeping up with today's market environment. Instead of allocating 60% broadly to stocks and 40% to bonds, many professionals now advocate for different weights and diversifying into even greater asset classes.
At what age should you have a 60 40 portfolio? ›
As you reach your 50s, consider allocating 60% of your portfolio to stocks and 40% to bonds. Adjust those numbers according to your risk tolerance. If risk makes you nervous, decrease the stock percentage and increase the bond percentage.
Is the 60/40 rule dead? ›
As our table below shows, the simple 60/40 portfolio is hardly dead. We believe the time-tested strategy adds value/return potential longer-term and remains a solid benchmark to test the merits of diversification, particularly in periods where the strategy is drawing near-term scrutiny.
Will stocks or bonds do better in 2024? ›
Bond outlooks improve, but stocks' prospects drop on the heels of 2023′s rally. Better things lie ahead for bonds, but the prospects for stocks, especially U.S. equities, are less rosy.
What is the best asset allocation for seniors? ›
At age 60–69, consider a moderate portfolio (60% stock, 35% bonds, 5% cash/cash investments); 70–79, moderately conservative (40% stock, 50% bonds, 10% cash/cash investments); 80 and above, conservative (20% stock, 50% bonds, 30% cash/cash investments).
The “60/40 portfolio” has long been revered as a trusty guidepost for a moderate risk investor—a 60% allocation to equities with the intention of providing capital appreciation and a 40% allocation to fixed income to potentially offer income and risk mitigation.
What is an 80/20 portfolio? ›
This investment strategy seeks total return through exposure to a diversified portfolio of primarily equity, and to a lesser extent, Fixed Income asset classes with a target allocation of 80% equities and 20% Fixed Income. Target allocations can vary +/-5%.
Is a 60 40 portfolio better than cash? ›
Using data from 1990 to 2023, Vanguard looked at the returns of cash versus a standard 60:40 portfolio (60% stocks and 40% bonds). Their analysis shows that, over 6-month time frames, there is a 66% chance that a 60:40 portfolio beats cash. Over 12 months, there is a 69% chance.
What is the best portfolio balance by age? ›
The common rule of asset allocation by age is that you should hold a percentage of stocks that is equal to 100 minus your age. So if you're 40, you should hold 60% of your portfolio in stocks. Since life expectancy is growing, changing that rule to 110 minus your age or 120 minus your age may be more appropriate.
Does Vanguard have a 60/40 fund? ›
Vanguard 60% Stock/40% Bond Portfolio | Vanguard.
What is the outlook for Vanguard 60 40? ›
But it helps to put this in perspective: The annualized return for the 10 years through 2022 was 6.1% for a globally diversified 60/40 portfolio. “The past decade has been a strong run for the 60/40,” said Todd Schlanger, a senior investment strategist at Vanguard.
What happens if Vanguard goes bust? ›
The securities that underlie the funds are held by a custodian, not by Vanguard. Vanguard is paid by the funds to provide administration and other services. If Vanguard ever did go bankrupt, the funds would not be affected and would simply hire another firm to provide these services.
Are 60 40 portfolios facing worst returns in 100 years? ›
LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Investors with classic "60/40" portfolios are facing the worst returns this year for a century, BofA Global Research said in a note on Friday, noting that bond markets continue to see huge outflows.
Is Vanguard financially stable? ›
About Vanguard
Vanguard's mission is to "take a stand for all investors, to treat them fairly, and to give them the best chance for investment success."6 It prides itself on its stability, transparency, low costs, and risk management.
