25 years to bounce back from the 1929 crash? Try four-and-a-half (2024)

But a careful analysis of the record shows that the picture is more complex and, ultimately, far less daunting: An investor who invested a lump sum in the average stock at the market’s 1929 high would have been back to a break-even by late 1936—less than four-and-a-half years after the mid-1932 market low.

25 years to bounce back from the 1929 crash? Try four-and-a-half (1)

Correct picture? A file photo of the New York Stock Exchange. Determining the length of a recovery is tough, given the many definitions of a bear market. But whatever the definition, typical recovery time is quite quick. Gino Domenico / Bloomberg

The numbers show that from a peak, on a closing basis, of 381.17 on 3 September 1929, the Dow needed until 23 November 1954, to return to its old high. But that’s in “nominal" terms, without adjusting for the effects of inflation or its opposite, deflation.

The Great Depression was a deflationary period. And because the Consumer Price Index in late 1936 was more than 18% lower than it was in the fall of 1929, stating market returns without accounting for deflation exaggerates the decline.

These payouts played a big role in the 1930s. When the Dow hit a low of 41.22 on 8 July 1932, for example, the dividend yield of the overall stock market was close to 14%, according to data compiled by Robert J. Shiller, the Yale economics professor.

So ignoring dividends, especially when yields were so rich, also exaggerates the losses of a typical equity investor.

Many researchers consider the overall market—defined as the combined value of all publicly traded stocks—as the best gauge of a typical investor’s experience.

The Dow is made up of just 30 stocks, which are weighted in the index according to their price rather than their relative market capitalization.

Perhaps the most celebrated illustration of the Dow’s failure to represent the overall market traces back to a 1939 decision to delete International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) from the Dow 30 list. IBM wasn’t restored to the index until 1979.

Norman Fosback, editor of Fosback’s Fund Forecaster newsletter, has estimated that the Dow would have been more than twice as high in 1979 had IBM stayed in the index continuously.

It’s unclear when the Dow would have returned to its 1929 pre-crash high had IBM not been deleted in 1939.

In response to a request, an analyst at the indexes division of Dow Jones said that it was unable to determine the answer.

But because IBM’s stock was one of the best performers during the 1940s, greatly outpacing the Dow itself, it’s certain that its inclusion would have markedly accelerated the index’s recovery.

So when did the overall stock market really make it back to its pre-crash peak? Just four years and five months after its mid-1932 low, according to data provided to Sunday Business by Ibbotson Associates Inc., a division of Morningstar Inc.

That seems remarkably fast, given that the stock market lost more than 80% of its value from its 1929 high to its mid-1932 low.

But the quick recovery of the 1930s is consistent with the typical experience after other bear markets in the US.

Determining the precise length of such recoveries is a problem, given the many definitions of a bear market. Whatever definition is used, however, the typical recovery time is quite quick.

In fact, according to a Hulbert Financial Digest study of down markets since 1900, the average recovery time is just over two years, when factors like inflation and dividends are taken into account.

The longest was the recovery from the December 1974 low; it took more than eight years for the market to return to its previous peak, which was reached in late 1972.

None of this, of course, guarantees that stocks will have a quick recovery from the market decline that began in October 2007. But it suggests that the historical record isn’t as bleak as it looks.

©2009/THE NEW YORK TIMES

Mark Hulbert is editor ofThe Hulbert Financial Digest, a service of MarketWatch.

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Published: 26 Apr 2009, 09:43 PM IST

25 years to bounce back from the 1929 crash? Try four-and-a-half (2024)

FAQs

How long did it take to recover from 1929 stock market crash? ›

As shown in the table below, the recovery period for U.S. stocks has been as long as 15 years: In the wake of the 1929 Crash, the IA SBBI US Large Stock Index didn't fully recover until late 1944. For gold bugs, the longest recovery period spanned more than 26 years (from October 1980 until April 2007).

How long did it take the US to recover from the Great Depression? ›

The U.S. recovery began in the spring of 1933. Output grew rapidly in the mid-1930s: real GDP rose at an average rate of 9 percent per year between 1933 and 1937. Output had fallen so deeply in the early years of the 1930s, however, that it remained substantially below its long-run trend path throughout this period.

Did anyone get rich from the 1929 crash? ›

Economic downturns hurt the optimistic bullish investors but reward the pessimistic bearish investors. Several individuals who bet against or “shorted” the market became rich or richer. Percy Rockefeller, William Danforth, and Joseph P. Kennedy made millions shorting stocks at this time.

How long did it take the Dow Jones Index to recover to its 1929 high of 381 F100? ›

By mid-November, the Dow had lost almost half of its value. The slide continued through the summer of 1932, when the Dow closed at 41.22, its lowest value of the twentieth century, 89 percent below its peak. The Dow did not return to its pre-crash heights until November 1954.

How many years did it take the stock market to recover after 2008? ›

The bounce-back from the 2008 crash took five and a half years, but an additional half year to regain your purchasing power.

How long did it take for the stock market to recover after 1987? ›

Stock markets quickly recovered a majority of their Black Monday losses. In just two trading sessions, the DJIA gained back 288 points, or 57 percent, of the total Black Monday downturn. Less than two years later, US stock markets surpassed their pre-crash highs.

What was the longest recession in the United States history? ›

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years.

Did we fully recover from the Great Depression? ›

As much as one-fourth of the labour force in industrialized countries was unable to find work in the early 1930s. While conditions began to improve by the mid-1930s, total recovery was not accomplished until the end of the decade.

What was the longest depression in the United States history? ›

1929–1941. The longest and deepest downturn in the history of the United States and the modern industrial economy lasted more than a decade, beginning in 1929 and ending during World War II in 1941.

What jobs thrived during the Great Depression? ›

Industries that thrived during the Great Depression.
  • This has all happened before and it will all happen again.
  • Food. ...
  • Household products + essential consumables. ...
  • Healthcare. ...
  • Communications. ...
  • Capital goods. ...
  • Security. ...
  • Anyone who keeps advertising & innovating.
Mar 20, 2024

Who was blamed for the crash of 1929? ›

Many people blamed the crash on commercial banks that were too eager to put deposits at risk on the stock market. In 1930, 1,352 banks held more than $853 million in deposits; in 1931, one year later, 2,294 banks failed with nearly $1.7 billion in deposits.

Who thrived during the Great Depression? ›

Business titans such as William Boeing and Walter Chrysler actually grew their fortunes during the Great Depression.

Who was blamed for the Great Depression and why? ›

Banks and financial institutions that had loaned money began to fail, and credit necessary to keep the economy moving became hard to acquire. Through Hoover's presidency, the situation was bleak and many blamed the president. Up to one-third of the work force was unemployed.

What ended the Great Depression? ›

Despite all the President's efforts and the courage of the American people, the Depression hung on until 1941, when America's involvement in the Second World War resulted in the drafting of young men into military service, and the creation of millions of jobs in defense and war industries.

Why was Germany suffering the most during the depression? ›

In 1929 as the Wall Street Crash. led to a worldwide depression. Germany suffered more than any other nation as a result of the recall of US loans, which caused its economy to collapse. Unemployment rocketed, poverty soared and Germans became desperate.

Could the stock market crash of 1929 happen again? ›

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation also oversees bank operations and insures depositor's' money to prevent bank runs that became an iconic image in the 1930s. While a drop like 1929 could potentially happen again, it wouldn't have the same the consequences today as it did 90 years ago.

How did the US recover from the Great Depression? ›

In response to the Great Depression, Congress approved President Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal, which provided $41.7 billion in funding for domestic programs like work relief for unemployed workers. As federal money was pouring into the recovery and relief efforts of the 1930s, GAO's workload increased.

How long did the bear market last in 2008? ›

Start and End Date% Price DeclineLength in Days
10/9/2007–11/20/2008-51.93408
1/6/2009–3/9/2009-27.6262
2/19/2020–3/23/2020-33.9233
1/3/2022–10/12/2022-25.43282
24 more rows

How much did the average stock price drop between 1929 and 1932? ›

From 1929 to 1932 stocks lost 73% of their value (different indices measured at different time would give different measures of the increase and decrease). The price increases were large, but not beyond comprehension.

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